Guest: Thierry Carrez (LinkedIn)
Organization: OpenInfra Foundation 
Show: 2026 Predictions
Topic: Open Source

As geopolitical tensions rise and AI capabilities advance, 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for how organizations approach infrastructure and software development. Thierry Carrez, General Manager of the OpenInfra Foundation, believes this convergence of forces will fundamentally change what enterprises take for granted about their technology stack.

Thierry Carrez has spent years at the intersection of open source infrastructure and enterprise adoption. As General Manager of the OpenInfra Foundation—home to projects like OpenStack and Kata Containers—he has a front-row seat to how global trends affect infrastructure decisions. His 2026 predictions paint a picture of transformation driven by uncertainty, regulation, and technological disruption.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Will Peak

Carrez’s first major prediction centers on business and geopolitical uncertainty reaching new heights in 2026. “We’ll see a lot of companies focus on short-term gains rather than long-term investment, because it’s a very uncertain environment,” he explains. This will challenge everything previously taken for granted in the technology world.

He points to scenarios like Broadcom’s approach to VMware customers as a preview of what’s coming. “We’ll see more moves like Broadcom turning to its own customers and trying to extract more money from locked-in customers. We’ll also see more parties locked out of critical services as a geopolitical negotiation lever.”

This environment will force both private and public sector organizations to completely reassess their approach to software. How much can they trust a single software company? How much can they trust a single country? These questions will dominate strategic planning in 2026.

The Cyber Resilience Act Changes the Game

The EU’s Cyber Resilience Act will gradually enter into force in 2026, and Carrez believes it will have far-reaching implications. The regulation will force companies to rethink how they put products with digital elements on the European market and fundamentally change how they interact with open source projects included in their products.

For enterprises, this means thoroughly auditing how they consume and integrate software and digital services. “They should really assess how much of that depends on externally controlled companies, and the risk it creates for the software they integrate into their products,” Carrez advises. Companies also need to engage with publishers to ensure security best practices are followed.

AI Will Shift From General to Specialized

On the AI front, Carrez predicts that general-purpose large language models will hit their limits in 2026. “We’ll see smaller models. We’ll see different approaches that will prove more economically or commercially viable,” he says. Whether the AI bubble pops remains uncertain, but companies will need to shift strategies quickly.

His more provocative prediction involves coding agents becoming good enough to create throwaway software at the top of the stack. “Rather than using something that’s available somewhere, we’ll just ask the AI to build it for us for throwaway usage,” he explains. This won’t be ubiquitous yet, but it will start a revolution in how we think about software, especially user interfaces.

If machines can generate top-layer applications at will, it raises fundamental questions about product development. “Do we need to have that many products that emerge at the top of the stack?” Carrez asks. The implication is that investment should move lower in the software stack, where AI cannot easily replicate functionality.

Open Source Infrastructure as the Solution

Throughout these shifts, Carrez sees collaboratively-built open source software as the key to resilience. “It’s really a great way to collaborate on the lower parts of the software stack,” he explains. “It gives you products that are more resilient to the fact that AI is going to disrupt some of the software stack.”

Open source also provides resilience against vendor lock-in and geopolitical risk. “It’s going to help you be resilient against any single party, any single software vendor, or any single country changing its mind, because open source is a global asset that everyone can leverage.”

Carrez predicts less fragmentation in the open source space as companies move toward mature common projects. “We let a thousand flowers bloom, but now there is regulation, now there are a lot of challenges, and maybe it’s time to regroup to properly take care of the healthiest flowers in a sustainable way.”

Actionable Advice for Enterprises

Carrez’s advice for enterprise leaders is straightforward: know what you’re using. “They should really thoroughly audit how they consume and integrate software and digital services within their companies and within their products,” he says. This includes assessing dependencies on externally controlled companies and the risks those create.

Critically, enterprises should engage early with open source communities. “If they haven’t built that relationship yet, they won’t regret engaging with open source software communities, because that’s really how you get the most out of the software.”

The OpenInfra Foundation’s focus in 2026 will be on education—ensuring policymakers and the wider public understand that mature, safe open source infrastructure solutions already exist and are free to use. “Everyone should be able to use them, but many people don’t know they exist—or that they’re mature and free to use,” Carrez notes.

As 2026 unfolds with its geopolitical tensions, regulatory requirements, and AI disruption, organizations that audit their dependencies, engage with open source communities, and build resilience into their infrastructure will be best positioned to navigate the uncertainty ahead.